Wednesday, 18 November 2009

We're on course for catastrophic 6° rise

An article in today's Independent about the catastrophic impact we humans are having on our beautiful blue planet.

A group of scientists, led by Prof. Le Quéré of UEA, say we are heading for catastrophe because the CO2 emissions from industry, transport, and deforestation have increased dramatically since 2002, and are now running at treble the rate of the 1990s.

Next month's Copenhagen conference is probably the last chance to stabilise climate levels in a smooth and organised way, however, if the agreement is too weak, or the commitments not respected, then we will get a 5C/6C temperature rise by the end of the century.

What the impact could be is best described by Mark Lynas's book "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet".The most recent climatic comparison is the Cretaceous period (144m-65m years ago) which ended with the extinction of the dinosaurs. Before that, at the end of the Permian (251m years ago), similar conditions led to 95% of species being wiped out.

Of that period, Lynas says that:
On land, the only winners were fungi that flourished on dying trees and shrubs. At sea there were only losers. Warm water is a killer. Less oxygen can dissolve, so conditions become stagnant and anoxic. Oxygen-breathing water-dwellers face suffocation. Sea levels rose by 20 metres, and the resulting "super-hurricanes" hitting the coasts triggered flash floods that no living thing could have survived.

As the ice-caps melt, hundreds of millions will also be forced to move inland due to rapidly-rising seas. As world food supplies crash, the higher mid-latitude and sub-polar regions would become fiercely-contested refuges. The British Isles, indeed, might become one of the most desirable pieces of real estate on the planet. But, with a couple of billion people knocking on our door, things might quickly turn rather ugly.

The government, must be bold and take the initiative in Copenhagen, and lead by example.

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