Interesting paper by Chatham House and the University of St Andrews analysing the voting figures in this month's Iranian Presidential Elections.
Comparing this and the previous elections of 2005, the team come up with some fascinating observations:
* In two conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded.
* If Ahmadinejad’s victory was primarily caused by the increase in voter turnout, one would expect the data to show that the provinces where there was the greatest 'swing' in support towards Ahmadinejad would also be the provinces with the greatest increase in voter turnout. This is not the case.
* In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but up to 44% of former reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups.
* In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas.
That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in provinces that are more rural flies in the face of these trends.
So whichever way you play it the election was STOLEN!
The complete paper can be downloaded from:http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf
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